".....
Baseball betting
- what's it all
about? Firstly, you must get the best odds. The margins and perceived edge you have in baseball betting are small. You've backed Boston @ 4/6 you say. This is at least 10% below the best price available elsewhere. It is below the fair price, and if I was a bookmaker I'd be laying 4/6 all day long for as much money as people wanted to put on it.
You must get the best price at all times or else you've no hope.
Secondly, you're talking about four team accumulators to try and win a lot of money quickly. This is the way to the poor house. As you said yourself, a lot of baseball is 50/50 (the worst team can hammer the best team on any given night) so why would you want to be taking big accumulators on it? Bookmakers have a profit margin of anywhere from about 5% up to about 20%. Let's say you place a four team accumulator at a bookmaker who operates a 110% book. That is a 10% margin on each selection. This margin increases exponentially for each extra selection. For four selections at the bookmaker like this, the margin for them is over 45% . They'll happily take your money all day long.
The best way to win at betting is to have the ability to spot value. Always bet an even money shot if you are offered 11/10, never if you are offered 10/11.
I look at who's playing who and the reality of them beating their opponents before I look at the odds.
I'd never pick a team just because they have "good odds" or they are "good value". Last night the Mets were good value at 2/1, but there was no way Wang and the Yankees was going to lose that last night, even though they were 4/9 to win
Just like most things in life, unless you're extremely lucky, there is no get rich quick scheme. Steady, gradual profit is the best way to do it. With baseball, any significant bets you place should be singles.
The Reason I took the 4/6 is because that was the only Bookie (ladbr) where I could use that card due to various different reasons, so in this instance I had no other option.
I tried to use the gradual profit method from 2002 to 2006, and it got me no where. I'd use the 1 MLB pick a day and get off to a winning start, but then lose it when a major favourite pitcher pitches badly - then there goes my money.
So I’ve tried the most common sense approach anyone could follow. I pretty much know who to touch and who not to touch.
You can mess around with £100 single bets on the Yankees at 4/9 but that’s not going to win you big money. The money will probably go the next day when you’ve bet £100 on Tim Hudson of the Braves, who then goes on to lose the game, which now leaves you in the red.
That's why I believe an accumulator is the ONLY way you are going to win at Baseball. That's what my experience tells me ......."
