".....Betting is a very simple game. You assign a probability of an outcome occuring, and then if the odds imply that the probability is less, this is a good bet.
In simple terms, if you think the Mets were good value @ 2/1, you're saying that you thought they had more than a 33.33% chance of winning the game - the odds imply a 33.33% chance of winning. If this was the case you should have bet on it.
Even if something is good value (over-priced, odds too high in your opinion) you won't bet on it if it's less than 50% likely to happen?
To be honest, you just seem like a favourite-backer who just wants to win regardless of price. This is the wrong strategy. Backing favourites all the time in MLB (particularly way under the fair price as you have tonight) will lead to failure. Lets just say you bet with a standard UK bookmaker. Let's just say for arguments sake, you put £100 on a four-team accumulator with all four teams being priced at Evens (2.00). T
his year however i have started to do single bets and have actually shown a profit on baseball.
My method is simple : I look at the teams, the pitchers and the hitting stats then come to a conclusion as to who i think will win. (obvious i know!) Then i will look at the odds and if they are too low, then I leave it.
I also agree that stakes are totally irrelevant. A mate of mine who posts on these forums started with £2 and is up to about £200 in the same account betting £2 max over a couple of years. He just looks for value. Stakes are totally irrelevant.
Most UK bookmakers will go Evens one side and 8/11 (1.73) the other. This is about a 108% book - the bookmaker's profit margin is 8%. It is extremely likely that higher odds are on offer elsewhere about each of the four selections (just like there are for Boston tonight).
Now if the profit margin for one selection is 8%, for four selections it is 1.08^4 (1.08 x 1.08 x 1.08 x 1.08) = about 36%.
Therefore your £100 four-team accumulator will win you £700 (profit) if it wins.
However, the approximate fair price is 36% higher, so you should actually be winning closer to £950. Why do you think bookmakers try to encourage you to place larger and larger accumulators? Because their edge over you gets larger and larger for every team/selection you add. This is particularly true if you aren't bothered about getting value on each selection (absolute madness as anyone who makes a profit from betting will tell you) and just want to "go for it" and get rich quick.
......."
